NHL best bets: Stanley Cup playoff predictions and expert picks for 4/29

Lightning vs. Panthers

Monday, April 29, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Stamkos Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +125 (Bet365)

By Nicholas Martin

If the Lightning had lost Game 4, it might have been the final time Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos donned a Lightning jersey. However, the Lightning held off elimination with a convincing 6-3 victory and will remain in do-or-die mode tonight as the series shifts back to Sunrise.

Stamkos' dominant two-goal effort in Game 4 was a big reason why we are being treated to a Game 5 tonight. He managed eight unblocked shot attempts and was more noticeable at even strength than in the rest of the series.

Jon Cooper decided to move Stamkos up with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point in Game 4, and Cooper likely will keep that trio together for tonight's matchup. Look for their top unit to receive more minutes tonight than in Game 4 when the Lightning led by three goals after the first period.

Tampa's top even-strength line will face tougher matchups tonight. The Lightning also likely won't spend as much time on the power play as in Games 3 and 4. Still, I don't believe the market has moved enough for Stamkos' improved role, and I believe that he will bring another strong effort in tonight's game.

Stamkos is priced at +125 to record over 3.5 Shots on Goal, and I believe there is value at anything better than +115.

Pick: Stamkos Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +125 (Play to +115)

Stars vs. Golden Knights

Monday, April 29, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Dallas Stars Moneyline -115 (PointsBet)

By Nicholas Martin

Despite Knights goaltender Logan Thompson putting forth one of the best goaltending performances in recent memory, the Stars still gutted out a critical Game 3 win in overtime.

With their backs against the wall, the Stars came out and systematically demolished the Knights in Game 3, and the only reason it was even close was the disparity in goal. The Stars generated 27 High-danger Chances compared to the Knights' total of just four. They outshot the Knights 46-34. In the series, the Stars have played to a 61.55% Expected Goal Share.

The Stars' puck management was drastically better than the Knights' in Game 3. Their forwards did an excellent job of hounding pucks in the neutral zone. Aside from Ryan Suter, their defense did an excellent job of staying composed under pressure and making plays to keep possession.

The Knights are capable of bringing a sharper effort in tonight's matchup and likely will allow fewer High-danger Chances. Still, I feel more confident that the Stars' tremendous roster has figured out how to manage the Knights attack than I am that the Knights will bounce back based upon reputation.

Vegas will continue to receive better goaltending from Logan Thompson in this series. Nonetheless, that's a small argument to say that the Knights deserve to be priced evenly with the Stars in Game 4.

Jake Oettinger stopped the ones he was supposed to in Game 3, and if he can provide that level of play tonight, it should be enough for a second straight win.

As I will continue to note over and over because of it's betting significance, home teams are often greatly overvalued in the NHL playoffs.

After last night's games, road teams are now up to 17-13 straight up this postseason after finishing with a winning record of 42-36 last postseason. Even still, we typically see 20 cents or more of an adjustment in games when series change location.

In my article ahead of Game 3 of this series, I noted it was an overreaction that the Stars were priced at -110 after being -170 favorites in Dallas for Game 2.

At the Stars' current price of -125, there is enough value to back them for a half-unit play.

Pick: Dallas Stars Moneyline -115 (Play to -125)